Bad news in international education
The Department of Education has published the latest international education data through to the end of April – and it is a grim picture.
While the data shows an annual increase in enrolments for all sectors except the English language sector (ELICOS) – there have in fact only been meaningful increases in the higher education and schools sectors.
Changes in enrolments between April 2024 and April 2025:
- Higher education 12%
- VET 1%
- Schools 7%
- ELICOS -37%
- Non-award 3%
- Total 2%
Obviously not all of these enrolments are new students who began their studies this year – and when you look at commencing student enrolment numbers that’s when it becomes clearer how difficult this year is starting to look.
Change in commencements between April 2024 and April 2025:
- Higher education +2%
- VET -20%
- Schools -11%
- ELICOS -44%
- Non-award +1%
- Total -13%
And when you look at students who were new to Australia and their level of commencements – the picture looks even worse – and hence the concerns expressed by some VCs recently about the level of poaching going on in the sector. In every sub-sector there has been a decline in new commencing students who are new to Australia:
Decrease in commencements by students who are new to Australia – between April 2024 and April 2025:
- Higher education -2%
- VET -67%
- Schools -23%
- ELICOS -49%
- Non-award -1%
- Total -21%
Combined with recent analysis on Australia’s visa grant rates by Bobby Abraham from Excelsia College it seems increasingly likely that Australia will follow Canada (as reported in The PIE) and significantly undershoot the notional international student caps the government sought to impose on the sector.
What this will mean for the English language sector, the private VET sector, and the higher education sector is difficult to imagine.
