Higher education 2024: which students enrolled where?

Higher education 2024: which students enrolled where?

In the last fortnight we have seen the release of the full student datasets for higher education and VET.

In two updates I have looked at a key cohort in each sector.

In the higher education sector I have chosen to focus on domestic commencing students – as the government prepares to make changes to attract more new students into higher education following the recommendations of the Universities Accord panel.

In a related report on the VET sector, although there are a lot of VET enrolments in single subject courses (eg first aid) and this is legitimate and important VET delivery, I have chosen to focus my analysis on VET program enrolments (ie enrolments in full qualifications and skillsets) as it allows for more useful comparisons across key provider types, training packages and jurisdictions.

Higher education

Turning here to higher education and looked at over the past decade – there has been minimal growth in domestic commencing students in Australian higher education (2%), growth in commencing international students has been significant – up two-thirds in 2024 on 2015 figures (67%) meaning there has been an overall increase in commencing students since 2015 of 21%.

Most of the growth has been in postgraduate coursework programs (which have proven increasingly attractive to international students) and sub-bachelor programs (ie diplomas, advanced diplomas and associate degrees).

Looking at commencing students at each university between 2015 and 2024 shows some interesting patterns of growth and decline:

The universities with the highest levels of growth in commencing domestic students in the last decade are:

  • Torrens University Australia (noting that the university only commenced operations in 2014) 1,450%
  • University of the Sunshine Coast 50%
  • Curtin University 40%
  • UTS 37%
  • Monash University 22%
  • Bond University 22%
  • UNSW 21%
  • RMIT 13%
  • University of Newcastle 13%
  • University of South Australia 10%

The universities experiencing the highest levels of growth are predominantly based in the inner cities. Some of the University of Newcastle’s growth in commencing students is likely due to the success of their longstanding ‘Open Foundation’ enabling program, while the Sunshine Coast is a regional area experiencing high population growth which is likely a key contributor to the growth in commencing students at the University of the Sunshine Coast. Nevertheless better understanding the growth drivers at these two regional universities over the past decade will be of interest to other regional universities and presumably ATEC.

The universities which experienced the largest declines in commencing domestic students in the last decade were:

  • ANU -37%
  • USQ -26%
  • UNE -25%
  • University of Sydney -21%
  • Murdoch University -18%
  • University of Divinity -16%
  • JCU -15%
  • Griffith University -13%
  • ECU -13%
  • Swinburne University -11%
  • WSU -11%
  • Southern Cross University -10%

Most but not all of these universities experiencing declines are based in outer-metropolitan and regional areas. Interestingly two of the Group of Eight universities, the Australian National University and the University of Sydney, had large significant declines in their domestic enrolments over the last decade. The decline in enrolments at the ANU is in part due to its ‘on campus’ postgraduate offerings which no longer reflect the desire of many postgraduates to study online or in a blended mode, as I have written about previously. The University of Sydney’s decline is less readily explicable but with UNSW and UTS on the same bus route as the University of Sydney – it may be that the drivers attracting more commencing domestic students to UTS and UNSW have had a negative impact on student demand for the University of Sydney.

Changing modes of study

In 2015 the following nine universities had fewer than half of their commencing domestic students studying on campus ie most of their commencing domestic students were already studying online or ‘multi-modal’ (ie blended learning):

  • The University of New England 9% of commencing domestic students studying on campus
  • Charles Darwin University 13%
  • Central Queensland University 13%
  • Charles Sturt University 16%
  • University of Southern Queensland 18%
  • University of Tasmania 32%
  • Southern Cross University 32%
  • Swinburne University of Technology 36%
  • La Trobe University 40%

By 2024 the shift away from predominantly on-campus study for domestic students was well underway as more universities offered more of their courses fully online or multi-modal, including:

  • La Trobe University 0% (ie no commencing domestic students were fully on-campus – most, 70%, were ‘multi-modal’)
  • The University of New England 4% on campus
  • Torrens University Australia 5%
  • University of Southern Queensland 6%
  • Central Queensland University 7%
  • University of Divinity 8%
  • Charles Darwin University 10%
  • University of South Australia 11%
  • Griffith University 11%
  • University of Tasmania 15%
  • Monash University 17%
  • Charles Sturt University 18%
  • Southern Cross University 22%
  • Deakin University 31%
  • James Cook University 33%
  • Swinburne University of Technology 36%
  • University of Canberra 40%
  • Edith Cowan University 40%
  • Victoria University 44%
  • Curtin University 44%
  • Flinders University 45%
  • Murdoch University 45%

Commencing domestic students at non-university higher education institutions[1]

In 2024, almost one in every ten (8%) domestic higher education commencing students (31,677) chose not to study at a university.[2] This was up 7% on the 29,599 domestic students choosing a non-university higher education institution in 2015.

The shift that non-university higher education institutions have made to offering more ‘external’ (ie online only) and multi-modal modes of study to their commencing domestic students over the last decade, as well as their abilities to grow their domestic student enrolments without public funding should be of interest to the publicly-funded university sector and to ATEC.

And with two-thirds (21,274) of all domestic commencing students in non-university higher education institutions studying with New South Wales based providers, sector leaders wanting to understand the growth in this part of the sector should be heading to Sydney to have those conversations.

Summary

Over the past decade, domestic commencing enrolments in Australian higher education have seen minimal growth (2%), while international commencements grew strongly by 67% compared with 2015, resulting in a 21% increase overall. Much of this expansion has been concentrated in postgraduate coursework and sub-bachelor programs.

Provider-level analysis highlights stark contrasts: inner-city universities such as UTS, UNSW, Monash, and RMIT expanded, while regional and outer-metropolitan universities such as USQ, UNE, Murdoch and JCU experienced significant declines. Interestingly, even Group of Eight members ANU (-37%) and the University of Sydney (-21%) recorded sizeable declines in their commencing domestic students, underscoring shifts in student demand, including preferences for blended or online postgraduate study.

The data also highlights the ongoing shift away from on-campus study. By 2024, universities such as La Trobe and UNE had fewer than 5% of their commencing domestic students studying fully on campus, reflecting broader growth in multi-modal and online provision.

Non-university higher education institutions have steadily grown their domestic market share, now enrolling nearly one in ten commencing domestic students (8%), without access to public funding. Concentrated particularly in New South Wales, these institutions’ ability to expand through online and blended delivery offers a competitive alternative to traditional universities, and their growth patterns deserve to be better understood by the sector and policymakers.

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[1] Non-university higher education institutions include both university colleges and institutes of higher education

[2] When domestic students choosing to commence study at the four Table B ‘ie non-publicly funded’ universities (Avondale, Bond, Torrens, and University of Divinity) are included the total choosing alternatives to publicly-funded (Table A) universities is 41,237 of the 413,133 commencing domestic students ie 10%.

Disclosure – Claire is a PhD student at Torrens University Australia writing the history of the university’s first decade of operation.

VET 2024: which students enrolled where?

VET 2024: which students enrolled where?

In the last fortnight we have seen the release of the full student datasets for higher education and VET.

In two updates I have looked at a key cohort in each sector.

In my first report on the higher education sector I chose to focus on domestic commencing students – as the government prepares to make changes to attract more new students into higher education following the recommendations of the Universities Accord panel.

In this related report on the VET sector, although there are a lot of VET enrolments in single subject courses (eg first aid) and this is legitimate and important VET delivery, I have chosen to focus my analysis on VET program enrolments (ie enrolments in full qualifications and skillsets) as it allows for more useful comparisons across key provider types, training packages and jurisdictions.

VET

The Total VET Activity data managed by the NCVER, while first collected in 2015, is sadly now only publicly available from 2019 onwards – with the exception of these two charts which show an overall decline in VET program enrolments in the last decade (ie full qualifications and skill sets) dropping from 3.1 million to 3 million (-3%), albeit more students are enrolling in VET but these are mainly in single subject programs (eg First Aid, Responsible Service of Alcohol, and other units which frequently are associated with licencing requirements).[1]

Qualification completions are unchanged over the last decade:

With VET students typically studying for much shorter periods than higher education students – this analysis does not focus on commencing students. Furthermore, as noted above, a lot of VET students enrol in single subjects – and hence this analysis focuses on ‘program enrolments’ that is in qualifications and skillsets.

Top 10 training packages by program enrolments

Firstly it is important to note that there are 11 not 10 ‘training packages’ listed below – and that is because the most popular area of enrolments in TAFE in 2024 is in courses outside national training packages – eg accredited courses (and these courses are also pretty popular at private providers).

It is interesting to see that after 30 years of efforts aimed at standardising VET delivery into national training packages, 20% of all delivery by the TAFE sector is outside of training packages, along with a good proportion of private provider activity.

Turning to the most popular training packages for program enrolments in TAFE/dual-sector universities and the data shows minimal changes in enrolments between 2019 and 2024 in the top 3 training packages: community services (+1%) and business (+4%) have had modest increases, and construction a modest decrease (-3%).

The largest shift in enrolments in TAFE have been in electrotechnology (+23%) and tourism, travel and hospitality (-26%).

Overall program enrolments in TAFE institutes and dual sector universities declined by -1% between 2019 and 2024, and although enrolments grew modestly post-pandemic they peaked in 2023 and again fell -1% to 2024.

By contrast for private providers there has been significant growth in enrolments in almost all of their Top 10 training packages by program enrolments, with the exception of business services (-13%) and transport and logistics (-48%). Enrolments in all other packages experienced double digit growth between 2019 and 2024.

Overall program enrolments in private providers increased 18% between 2019 to 2024, although the rate of increase between 2023 and 2024 was just 2%.

Government-funded enrolments in Top 10 training packages

Government-funded program enrolments in VET have increased by 8% since 2019, domestic fee-for-service enrolments decreased by -1% and program enrolments by international students grew by 40%.

Government-funding for VET shows Australian, state and territory governments’ priorities.

The Top 10 training packages for government-funded program enrolments are shown below. With a high proportion of TAFE enrolments being government-funded it is unsurprising that there are some similarities with the TAFE enrolment patterns.

Noticeably though most government-funded enrolments in community services programs happen outside the TAFE sector. It is also noticeable that tourism, travel and hospitality programs are a higher priority for governments than health – and again most government-funded program enrolments in tourism, travel and hospitality happen outside the TAFE sector.

Government-funded program enrolments in agriculture, horticulture, conservation and land management have declined by -2% since 2019 and by -16% for tourism, travel and hospitality. There has been growth in all other major training packages.

Program enrolments by jurisdiction

Looked at by jurisdiction – aside from the ACT which saw a 20% decline in VET program enrolments between 2019 and 2024, there was growth in enrolments in all other jurisdictions.

The pattern of overall growth was not uniform though and declines in program enrolments between 2019 and 2024 occurred for the following groups in the following jurisdictions:

  • NSW – domestic fee-for-service: -12% (could this be partly linked to the growth in private higher education commencing students outlined above given there is such a high proportion of domestic non-university higher education students studying with NSW providers?)
  • SA – government-funded: -1%
  • SA – domestic fee-for-service: -18%
  • NT – domestic fee-for-service: -7%
  • ACT – government-funded: -30%
  • ACT – domestic fee-for-service: -22%

AQF-level differences in program enrolment changes

The data shows growth in government-funded program enrolments predominantly in Certificate III and Certificate IV level courses and in ‘non-AQF level’ courses. Government funded enrolments in entry-level programs at Certificate I and II declined between 2019 and 2024.

And domestic fee-for-service enrolments show similar patterns of enrolments growth between 2019 and 2024.

Summary

This analysis of Total VET Activity data shows a modest overall decline in program enrolments (full qualifications and skillsets) of -3% in the decade from 2015, but an 11% increase (an extra 300,000 program enrolments) between 2019 and 2024.

Within TAFE and dual-sector universities, enrolment shifts were mixed: modest growth in community services (+1%) and business (+4%), a small decline in construction (-3%), and sharper movements in electrotechnology (+23%) and tourism, travel and hospitality (-26%).

Overall, TAFE program enrolments dropped slightly (-1%) between 2019-2024, while private providers grew significantly (+18%), although growth slowed between 2023 and 2024.

Government funding trends reveal shifting policy priorities. Since 2019, government-funded program enrolments grew 8%, particularly at Certificate III and IV levels, while Certificate I–II courses declined.

International student program enrolments increased by 40%, even as domestic fee-for-service activity fell slightly.

Notably, most government-funded community services and tourism, travel and hospitality enrolments occur outside the TAFE sector.

Jurisdictional variations in enrolments are evident: while enrolments grew in all states and the NT, the ACT saw a -20% overall fall in students choosing VET between 2019 and 2024. This was driven by a fall in both government-funded (-30%) and fee-for-service (-22%) enrolments.

Collectively these shifts highlight structural differences in demand across industry sectors, funding streams, and provider types.

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[1] Data from 2015-2019 appears to now only be available as a (paid) special data request.

How well are ASQA’s efforts to improve integrity in the VET sector working out?

How well are ASQA’s efforts to improve integrity in the VET sector working out?

Not that well at the moment – based on the evidence.

When you look at where ASQA has been focussing its attention in the last 18 months it would be fair to say that the integrity issues identified in the Nixon Review appear largely unaddressed (at least in terms of any public actions) and the public actions ASQA has taken on integrity issues seem very poorly focussed.

Here are some of what has me concerned:

  1. Why was ASQA focussed on discussing 23,000 cancelled VET qualifications (issued by 10 cancelled RTOs) at a recent international education agent conference… when only one of the 10 RTOs was CRICOS approved to deliver education to international students… and when the qualifications issued by that provider to their international students have not been found to have integrity issues and thus have not been cancelled?

The providers in question are listed on ASQA’s website: https://www.asqa.gov.au/students/qualification-integrity-regulatory-action

Only one of them had CRICOS approval and, as the Koala News reported, ASQA did not cancel any of the qualifications issued by this provider to their international students. Instead apparently finding they had been properly taught and assessed.

Despite this lack of evidence of any need to cancel the qualifications of any international students – ASQA thought it a productive use of their Executive Director – Integrity’s time to present to an audience of predominantly education agents at the SYMPLED2025 conference on ASQA’s efforts to cancel the qualifications of nine domestic RTOs and the domestic students of a CRICOS RTO.

I wasn’t at the conference but thanks to Rob McGowan from Torrens University’s write up (again in Koala News) we learn that, along with the Director of the Tuition Protection Service, ASQA’s representative:

“…delivered a sobering session on the rise of non-genuine providers and bad-faith operators. With over 23,000 qualifications voided due to college closures, the sector faces serious threats – from fraudulent issuance and phoenixing to criminal infiltration.

“Systemic problem requires a systematic solution.” It was recognised that these unethical and sometimes unlawful actions are resulting from a small minority but undermine the integrity of the sector and are being addressed.”

Clearly a powerful message – but totally misdirected given none of the public actions ASQA has taken to cancel qualifications so far relate to international students.

 


2. In separate regulatory action by ASQA – related to its concerns about academic integrity (contract cheating and undetected use by students of GenAI) – ASQA has just lost its case in the Administrative Review Tribunal.

In February this year the Sydney Morning Herald reported on ASQA’s attempts to cancel the registration of:

“One of the country’s largest training colleges has been ordered to shut down amid allegations that it failed to prevent students cheating, as part of an aggressive crackdown by the vocational education watchdog to clean up the sector.”

The provider, Entry Education, provided the SMH journalist with details of ASQA’s audit findings:

“The authority’s report said there was “significant concern” over the college’s use of online assessments, and it believed students had used AI to complete work, pointing to an example which it said appeared “too perfect” and showed indications of being an AI-generated response.”

Entry Education spoke to the journalist at the SMH and published their own statement on their website. They also challenged the decision in the Administrative Review Tribunal (ART).

Subsequently, in its April 2025 ASQA IQ update newsletter, ASQA published a range of statements about academic integrity, contract cheating and students’ potential use of GenAI. That was their first advice to the providers they regulate on this important integrity issue – despite the fact it appears to have been one of the reasons they were seeking to cancel Entry Education’s registration.

I am not aware of any further advice provided by ASQA to the sector (in webinars, statements of regulatory intent, etc) in the last six months on this critical academic integrity matter.

Last week Entry Education’s listing on the training.gov.au website was updated. When you get to the page, you need to turn on RTO history – yes, and scroll to the bottom of the summary page. There you will find two ‘details’ buttons showing the two related actions by ASQA that Entry Education was appealing (cancellation and a condition that they not enrol new students) had both been ‘set aside’ by the ART – that is, the Tribunal found in favour of Entry Education and threw out ASQA’s cancellation and conditions decisions.

3. In July I published data from the training.gov.au website showing 1 in 10 RTOs and 1 in 7 CRICOS providers are run by CEOs who use generic emails (like gmail and yahoo) to run their businesses. Despite this being a known integrity risk in the sector for 15 years it is unclear if any action has been taken by ASQA.

How much confidence would you have in someone like honey123@gmail.com running a college your son or daughter wanted to study at?

Does that kind of business practice scream “integrity?”

Clearly it does not – so why does ASQA find it acceptable to use these kinds of email addresses, for years and years, to engage with the providers they regulate? Especially after the work the VRQA did during the first international student crisis which first showed that the use of generic email addresses like these are a proven integrity risk.

4. This time last year, with the help of a few colleagues with eagle eyes, I disproved claims that ASQA’s efforts to ‘lapse’ the registration of 150 providers was a major win for integrity.

Claims were made at the time that ASQA’s efforts were cleaning up a:

“decade-long mess, shutting down ‘dormant’ registered training providers (RTOs) who have failed to show proof of delivering training for 12 months or more.

The Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) is keeping an eye on an additional 140 RTOs who have received a warning notice. They must resume quality training by the end of 2024 or face deregistration. Those who don’t resume satisfactory training will be found out and action will be taken to shut them down.

Improving integrity in the VET system means students are better placed to study at quality providers while employers can trust qualifications. This saves businesses time and money by improving the hiring process – and ensures students aren’t exploited.”

After I shone a light on the fact that so many of the ‘lapsed’ or ‘dormant’ providers were not involved in dubious practices but had merely not enrolled students for a while (eg Ausgrid as an enterprise RTO, numerous Catholic schools, etc), the report on lapsed providers, which had been published on the training.gov.au website, was removed.

That report on ‘lapsed’ providers has now been replaced by new reports available on the training.gov.au website, where lapsed providers are now simply a subset of those with ‘non-current’ registration, making it generally more difficult to monitor ASQA’s “integrity” actions with respect to these RTOs.

It is not clear from the brief summary details on the ASQA representative’s comments to the SYMPLED2025 conference – if actions against this group of providers was included in ASQA’s claims about the success of its regulatory activities to clean up integrity issues. Based on my analysis last year, if any actions against lapsed providers were being publicly portrayed as integrity measures against a group that was uniformly delivering unsatisfactory training warranting action to “shut them down” it would be untruthful.

So where does that leave us in terms of the regulator’s efforts to strengthen integrity in the sector?

  • Cancelled qualifications – 10 RTOs (a number of whom are challenging the cancellation decision in the ART), nine of which are domestic and one with CRICOS approval but no international students have had their qualifications cancelled – despite the Nixon Review shining a light on abhorrent practices in a portion of the international VET sector.

  • Academic integrity – one ASQA IQ update newsletter published with some dot points on the issue – but more significantly – one RTO cancellation decision on this issue thrown out by the ART.

  • CEOs using generic email addresses – no publicly visible action on this known integrity issue by ASQA.

  • Lapsed providers – any actions ASQA has taken since its first efforts 12 months ago are now less visible to the public – and the significance of its initial actions were overstated.

Who studied what government-funded VET in 2024?

Unpacking the 2026 student visa caps

VET’s real integrity risk

Is VET poised to make a comeback?

Bad news in international education

Problems with the pilot of the Revised Standards for RTOs